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Prediction for CME (2016-05-02T08:42:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-05-02T08:42Z
CME Note: The CME may have arrived on 2016-05-06T15:48Z. ACE magnetic field data shows a disturbance in form of a flux rope, plus density increased while the temperature decreased. Time of arrival is very rough.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-05-06T15:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-05-06T12:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 10.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2016-05-02T18:10Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 369
Longitude (deg): E31
Latitude (deg): N03
Half-angular width (deg): 30

Notes: Low confidence event from C3.5 flare from AR2540. Most of the ejecta is directed north of the ecliptic along the line of a pre-existing streamer, but there is a very faint emission on the ecliptic towards the east, hence wide angle (possibly polluted by a far side event). Ejecta too faint to analyse on anything other than Lasco C2, adding to low confidence since still decelerating in analysis.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence, based in part on analysis by Helen Waite.

Lead Time: 84.93 hour(s)
Difference: 3.80 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2016-05-03T02:52Z

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